Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Ends in 3 months 3 weeks · 04/10/2026 00:00
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 47,9%
Flavio Bolsonaro 41,4%
Fernando Haddad 4,1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 2,4%
Tarcisio de Frietas 2,4%
R$381K Vol. 04 Oct 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
R$169K Vol.
48%
▲ 5%
Flavio Bolsonaro
Flavio Bolsonaro
R$35.9K Vol.
41%
▼ 6%
Fernando Haddad
Fernando Haddad
R$57.3K Vol.
4%
▼ 1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
Michelle Bolsonaro
R$27.4K Vol.
2%
▲ 1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
Tarcisio de Frietas
R$78.3K Vol.
2%
▲ 1%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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